FOREX TRADING ( Updated Daily!! )

Mat 2nd 2014

NFP Chart Previous Readings, Averages and Standard Deviations

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The USD is up so far today on expectations that NFPs will come in at 210K jobs added to the economy. The unemployment rate is also expected to tick down to 6.6% from 6.7%. We believe that we should see a fairly good print although 1Q GDP was very weak that does not speak for the labor market overall, not to mention other data was not as bad. The labor market is no longer under pressure from the weather and hiring should have picked up.

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All eyes on US NFPs today 210K is expected while forecast vary from 180K to 220K.

Anything below 200K could see a pretty negative USD reaction.

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1NFP is the main focus for today with expectations of 205-215K jobs added. The US employment rate is expected to tick down to 6.6% from 6.7%.

Entire calendar here from dailyfx.com

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GBP/AUD still looks like it could continue lower. The doji candle shows some market indecision. And although it did rise yesterday we still have the 0.382 fib level around 1.83 to contend with. We should know more after tomorrow if it makes sense to hold onto this trade or exit for a loss.

We continue to hold a small short.

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AUD/USD looks like it may be finding trend line support. However with the weak data we have seen out of Australia and the dovish RBA who would like to see the currency depreciate it is best to stay on the sidelines for now.

For now we are flat.

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GBP/USD is currently trading near highs for the day, we are looking at a possible trend continuation on the back of some GDP data. However, the failure to close above 1.69 shows that some sellers are watching this pair closely. That being said we could continue lower tomorrow if the market is impressed with US data

For now we are holding a small short.

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More on GBP/USD here

NZD/USD is currently trading near highs for the day (7:34 GMT), NZD/USD has been able to rebound lately but may slow as it is still capped by a downward RSI trend. Major support is market by the long term 0.236 fib at around 0.85 with strong resistance coming in around the 2013 high and YTD highs. Look for a bullish RSI break for possible NZD/USD continuation higher.

For now we are holding a small short.

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More on NZD/USD here

Tomorrow all eyes are on USD/JPY if data is weak it could dip below 102 but may be unable to stay there, depends how the market feels. If data is good we could see 103 by the end of the day. In the long term USD/JPY should continue to move up.

USD/JPY  has not moved a lot for the last 3 months but that may change soon, RSI is in a slow but steady upward trend and the triangle pattern is pointing towards continuation. This pair is really locked in consolidation for the time being because even though the Bank Of Japan is not considering adding any additional QE anytime soon the US is tapering which is adding some strength to the USD. Plus while the markets are in a risk on theme the JPY should stay weak.

We are holding long.

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More on USD/JPY here

USD is facing some resistance near term, reaction low resistance and down trend resistance may prevent further USD strength for the time being. USD could possibly break out of this trend heading into May if the market likes NFPs this Friday and volatility picks up, which is currently near all time lows. Expectations are very high for the USD and this is leaving us with a cautious outlook for the time being.

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Gold has dropped back below $1300 and could face a new wave of selling. Gold is currently trading around $1283 (4:17 GMT).

SPX500 has failed to fall much further as market sentiment is currently very bullish, we could possible see new all time highs this week. If we are unable to press above all time highs there is a risk of steeper declines.

I have added an overlay of Gold to the SPX500 to prove a point that the two are not always inversely correlated. Last month Gold has been pretty correlated vs the SPX500, maybe on possible bubble or market top fears but has dropped off recently…

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May 1st 2014

The USD fell across the board yesterday and is currently on lows for the day at the start of the European trading session (7:18 GMT). The USD fell immediately after GDP data printed much lower than expected, it was able to rebound a bit after the FOMC announcement but has since faded. Gold and Oil were slammed lower after the weaker than expected data and seemed to not be affected by the FOMC decision. USD indices ended higher and are pressing right against all time highs.

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We have a fair amount of US data coming up later today, mainly US ISM. Tomorrow will be much more important with change in NFPs.

Entire calendar here from dailyfx.com

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GBP/AUD still looks like it could continue lower. The doji candle shows some market indecision.

We continue to hold short.

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AUD/USD looks like it may be finding trend line support. However with the weak data we have seen out of Australia and the dovish RBA who would like to see the currency depreciate it is best to stay on the sidelines for now.

For now we are flat.

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GBP/USD is currently trading near highs for the day, we are looking at a possible trend continuation on the back of some GDP data. If NFPs on Friday come in weak we could definitely test 1.70 by the end of the week.

For now we flat.

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More on GBP/USD here

NZD/USD is currently trading near highs for the day (7:34 GMT), NZD/USD has been able to rebound lately but may slow as it is still capped by a downward RSI trend. Major support is market by the long term 0.236 fib at around 0.85 with strong resistance coming in around the 2013 high and YTD highs. Look for a bullish RSI break for possible NZD/USD continuation higher.

For now we are holding a small long.

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More on NZD/USD here

USD/JPY  has not moved a lot for the last 3 months but that may change soon, RSI is in a slow but steady upward trend and the triangle pattern is pointing towards continuation. This pair is really locked in consolidation for the time being because even though the Bank Of Japan is not considering adding any additional QE anytime soon the US is tapering which is adding some strength to the USD. Plus while the markets are in a risk on theme the JPY should stay weak.

We are holding long.

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More on USD/JPY here

USD is facing some resistance near term, reaction low resistance and down trend resistance may prevent further USD strength for the time being. USD could possibly break out of this trend heading into May if the market likes NFPs this Friday and volatility picks up, which is currently near all time lows. Expectations are very high for the USD and this is leaving us with a cautious outlook for the time being.

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Gold has dropped back below $1300 and could face a new wave of selling. Gold is currently trading around $1283 (7:43 GMT).

SPX500 has failed to fall much further as market sentiment is currently very bullish, we could possible see new all time highs this week. If we are unable to press above all time highs there is a risk of steeper declines.

I have added an overlay of Gold to the SPX500 to prove a point that the two are not always inversely correlated. Last month Gold has been pretty correlated vs the SPX500, maybe on possible bubble or market top fears but has dropped off recently…

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April 30th 2014

Today there will be a heavy round of event risk from Japan, Euro Zone and US. We already had the BOJ announcement which saw no change in policy, the yen is up a bit across the board going into the Euro session (6:00 GMT). Soon we have German Unemployment Rate and Change (7:55 GMT) followed by EZ CPI at 9:00 GMT. Later on we have Canada and US GDP followed by FOMC meeting.

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Here is a list of the major events today, times are in GMT

Entire calendar here from dailyfx.com

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GBP/AUD looks good for a possible head and shoulders break out with downward continuation, we have entered short.

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AUD/USD looks like it may have topped 3 weeks ago and should continue to trend lower. The Australian economy is lagging, with CPI coming in weaker than expected last week which will put pressure on the RBA to act if things to not improve.

For now we are holding short, it is trading just below the 0.236 fib which is at 0.927 so the next target would be 0.382 fib around 0.915.

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GBP/USD is currently trading near highs for the day, we are looking at a possible trend continuation on the back of some GDP data. If the market is pleased with the data we could possibly see 1.70 in the near future. However some caution should be applied due to the fact that we have a heavy amount of US data this week as well.

For now we are flat.

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More on GBP/USD here

NZD/USD is currently trading near lows for the day (7:00 GMT), NZD/USD has fallen even after the RBNZ hiked rates 25bps from 2.75% to 3.00%. There is always the possibility for further downside until we break out of this downward RSI trend. Major support is market by the long term 0.236 fib at around 0.85. Look for a bullish RSI break for possible NZD/USD continuation higher.

For now we are holding a small long.

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More on NZD/USD here

USD/JPY has been able to break out of this triangle again however it could fall back below easily. Caution should be seen USD/JPY is facing some near term trend line resistance dating back to the beginning of 2014. RSI is sitting right above neutral 50 on the daily chart. Look for 102.2 and 101.9 for possible support and 103 for resistance. The fact that the BOJ may not add any more QE to their already large stimulus program is putting some speculation that we could see a move lower soon.

If we break down below the trend line this week we could see 100 soon which would see a lot of support. Right now it makes more sense to be short since we are closer to the top down trend line of the triangle pattern. If we see a maintain in tapering USD/JPY could get a temporary boost but if NFP under performs market expectations then we could still see a trend line break.

We are currently flat.

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More on USD/JPY here

USD is facing some resistance near term, reaction low resistance and down trend resistance may prevent further USD strength for the time being. USD could possibly rise this week on a continued taper and very good data. Expectations are very high for the USD and this is leaving us with a cautious outlook for the time being.

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Gold has dropped back below $1300 and could face a new wave of selling. Gold is currently trading around $1293 (7:10 GMT).

SPX500 has failed to fall much further as market sentiment is currently very bullish, we could possible see new all time highs this week. If we are unable to press above all time highs there is a risk of steeper declines.

I have added an overlay of Gold to the SPX500 to prove a point that the two are not always inversely correlated. Last month Gold has been pretty correlated vs the SPX500, maybe on possible bubble or market top fears but has dropped off recently…

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April 29th 2014

UK GDP DATA

The British Pound may find a reason to rally vs the USD on upcoming UK GDP data. If the market is pleased by the data we could see 1.70 in the near future. However some caution applied after the data is released because we have US GDP tomorrow followed by the Fed and NFPs Friday. Gold has settled below $1300 again as the risk on theme takes hold.

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At 8:30 GMT UK GDP is set to release, this has a lot of potential for a GBP breakout. 1st Q GDP is expected to come in at 3.2% vs 2.7% prior. Annualized growth would be the fastest YoY since 4thQ of 2007 and 1stQ GDP expanding to 0.9% would be fastest since QoQ since 2ndQ of 2010.

Entire calendar here from dailyfx.com

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AUD/USD looks like it may have topped 3 weeks ago and should continue to trend lower. The Australian economy is lagging, with CPI coming in weaker than expected last week which will put pressure on the RBA to act if things to not improve.

For now we are holding short, it is trading just below the 0.236 fib which is at 0.927 so the next target would be 0.382 fib around 0.915.

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GBP/USD is currently trading near highs for the day, we are looking at a possible trend continuation on the back of some GDP data. If the market is pleased with the data we could possibly see 1.70 in the near future. However some caution should be applied due to the fact that we have a heavy amount of US data this week as well.

For now we are holding a small long based on the recent inverse head and shoulders breakout pointing to trend continuation.

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More on GBP/USD here

NZD/USD is currently trading near lows for the day (7:00 GMT), NZD/USD has fallen even after the RBNZ hiked rates 25bps from 2.75% to 3.00%. There is always the possibility for further downside until we break out of this downward RSI trend. Major support is market by the long term 0.236 fib at around 0.85. Look for a bullish RSI break for possible NZD/USD continuation higher.

For now we are holding a small long.

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More on NZD/USD here

USD/JPY has been able to break out of this triangle again however it could fall back below easily. Caution should be seen USD/JPY is facing some near term trend line resistance dating back to the beginning of 2014. RSI is sitting right above neutral 50 on the daily chart. Look for 102.2 and 101.9 for possible support and 103 for resistance. The fact that the BOJ may not add any more QE to their already large stimulus program is putting some speculation that we could see a move lower soon.

If we break down below the trend line this week we could see 100 soon which would see a lot of support. Right now it makes more sense to be short since we are closer to the top down trend line of the triangle pattern. If we see a maintain in tapering USD/JPY could get a temporary boost but if NFP under performs market expectations then we could still see a trend line break.

We are currently flat.

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More on USD/JPY here

USD is facing some resistance near term, reaction low resistance and down trend resistance may prevent further USD strength for the time being. USD could possibly rise this week on a continued taper and very good data. Expectations are very high for the USD and this is leaving us with a cautious outlook for the time being.

1

Gold has dropped back below $1300 and could face a new wave of selling. Gold is currently trading around $1293 (7:10 GMT).

SPX500 has failed to fall much further as market sentiment is currently very bullish, we could possible see new all time highs this week. If we are unable to press above all time highs there is a risk of steeper declines.

I have added an overlay of Gold to the SPX500 to prove a point that the two are not always inversely correlated. Last month Gold has been pretty correlated vs the SPX500, maybe on possible bubble or market top fears but has dropped off recently…

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Weekly Outlook April 27th to May 3rd

The US Dollar may finally make a trend setting move this week and break out of the recent consolidation we have seen in April. Whether the USD rises or falls will depend on how the market reacts to the FED decision Wednesday and US data releases. Expectations will be running high for the USD with NFP expected to come in at 210K jobs added vs 192K previous, anything under this could harm the USD dramatically.

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This week will be extremely busy with event risk. Most importantly with the Federal Reserve, they are expected to continue their pace of tapering which should help the USD find some strength. Any deviation from tapering could send the USD moving dramatically.

If the situation does not improve in Ukraine we will likely see the Russian economy suffer further (USD/RUB is currently trading around 36 which is all time low vs USD). We are continuing to get closer to direct armed conflict between Ukraine and Russia. If this occurs Gold will likely continue to rally above $1300 and possibly oil which is on support right around $100. More on ukraine from Bloomberg

Entire calendar here from dailyfx.com

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AUD/USD looks like it may have topped 3 weeks ago and should continue to trend lower. The Australian economy is lagging, with CPI coming in weaker than expected last week which will put pressure on the RBA to act if things to not improve.

For now we are holding short.

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GBP/USD has been in a uptrend for about 8 months now but the trend momentum is slowing. We could soon see a break down in GBP/USD but that will have to come from a more Hawkish Fed and a continued unchanged tone from the BOE. The trend has been up since August 2013 on the back of rate hike expectation by 2015 by the BOE. It may start to stall since it is coming into major resistance at 1.70.

For now we continue to hold a small short (this is a speculative counter-trend trade).

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More on GBP/USD here

NZD/USD is has fallen even after the RBNZ hiked rates 25bps from 2.75% to 3.00%. There is always the possibility for further downside until we break out of this downward RSI trend. Major support is market by the long term 0.236 fib at around 0.85. Look for a bullish RSI break for possible NZD/USD continuation higher.

For now we are holding a small long.

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More on NZD/USD here

USD/JPY has really not done a lot this year besides consolidate in this triangle pattern which should bring continuation. However, USD/JPY is facing some near term trend line resistance dating back to the beginning of 2014. RSI is sitting right around neutral 50 on the weekly chart. Look for 102.2 and 101.9 for possible support. The fact that the BOJ may not add any more QE to their already large stimulus program is putting some speculation that we could see a move lower soon.

If we break down below the trend line this week we could see 100 soon which would see a lot of support. Right now it makes more sense to be short since we are closer to the top down trend line of the triangle pattern. If we see a maintain in tapering USD/JPY could get a temporary boost but if NFP under performs market expectations then we could still see a trend line break.

We are currently holding a small size short after taking profit on our long trade that was placed 2 weeks ago.

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More on USD/JPY here

USD is facing some resistance near term, reaction low resistance and down trend resistance may prevent further USD strength for the time being. USD could possibly rise this week on a continued taper and very good data. Expectations are very high for the USD and this is leaving us with a cautious outlook for the time being.

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Gold has found some recent buying and could possibly continue higher. Gold is currently trading around $1302.

SPX500 has been up 7 days in a row, a pullback has occurred but follow through will depend on the Fed and US data this week as well as market sentiment. While we are unable to press above all time highs there is a risk of steeper declines.

I have added an overlay of Gold to the SPX500 to prove a point that the two are not always inversely correlated. Last month Gold has been pretty correlated vs the SPX500, maybe on possible bubble or market top fears but has dropped off recently…

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April 25th 2014

The US Dollar has had a choppy session vs the JPY and is down vs most other pairs today. The Japanese Nikkei is currently trading about flat (NKY up +0.05% 4:51 GMT). US futures are slightly down while EZ futures are mixed (4:51 GMT). JPY CPI ex fresh food came in as expected at 1.3% vs 1.4% expected with 1.3% prior while CPI came in at 1.6% vs 1.6% expected and 1.5% prior.  Gold is struggling to press above $1300.

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Today is more quiet than yesterday when it comes to event risk and with it being a Friday it is unlikely to see major market moves today.

Entire calendar here from dailyfx.com

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AUD/USD has had limited downside movement after putting in a bearish engulfing candle, we could see more movement to downside next week.

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GBP/USD has not done a whole lot so far today, GBP/USD top still seems to be a possibility but the outlook is clouded for now with GBP rate hike speculation high with last weeks GBP unemployment data coming in very strong and the Federal Reserve coming off as dovish. The trend has been up since August 2013 but it may start to stall since it is coming into major resistance at 1.70. For now we continue to hold a small short (this is a speculative counter-trend trade).

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More on GBP/USD here

NZD/USD is has fallen even after the RBNZ hiked rates 25bps from 2.75% to 3.00%. There is always the possibility for further downside until we break out of this downward RSI trend. Major support is market by the long term 0.236 fib at around 0.85. Look for a bullish RSI break for possible NZD/USD continuation higher. For now we are holding a small long.

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More on NZD/USD here

USD/JPY is facing some near term trend line resistance dating back to the beginning of 2014. RSI has now turned from neutral to bearish under 50 and is opening up the potential for further declines. The fact the it put in doji candle shows some market indecision. Look for 102.2 and 101.9 for possible support. We are currently holding a small size short after taking profit on our long trade that was placed a week ago.

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More on USD/JPY here

USD is facing some resistance near term, reaction low resistance and down trend resistance may prevent further USD strength for the time being.  Longer term we expect the USD to rise overall as the FOMC continues to Taper, for now some consolidation should be expected.

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Gold remains in a downtrend in the longer term since mid 2012 and is currently facing trend line resistance as well as $1300 resistance. Gold is currently trading around $1291.

SPX500 has been up 7 days in a row, a pullback has occurred in the CFD but the index itself closed a little higher. While we are unable to press above all time highs there is a risk of steeper declines.

I have added an overlay of Gold to the SPX500 to prove a point that the two are not always inversely correlated. Last month Gold has been pretty correlated vs the SPX500, maybe on possible bubble or market top fears but has dropped off recently…

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April 24th 2014

The US Dollar has fallen today vs the JPY amid some moderate risk off in the Asia session (NKY down -1.08%). US futures are currently trading up slightly while EZ futures are down (4:00 GMT). JPY CPI is the major event risk on the calendar which is expected to come in at 1.4% vs 1.3% prior (23:30 GMT). The USD also fell against the NZD after the RBNZ hiked rates from 2.75% to 3.00% as expected. Gold is continuing to consolidate around $1285.

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There is a fair amount of event risk today, here is the calendar with medium and high market moving potential.

Entire calendar here from dailyfx.com

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AUD/USD may continue to fall after weaker than expected CPI data yesterday, it has put in a bearish engulfing candle and closed below the 0.93 level.

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GBP/USD top still seems to be a possibility but the outlook is clouded for now with GBP rate hike speculation high with last weeks GBP unemployment data coming in very strong and the Federal Reserve coming off as dovish. For now we continue to hold a small short (this is a speculative counter-trend trade). The trend has been up since August 2013 but it may start to stall since it is coming into major resistance at 1.70. The bearish engulfing candle hints a turn lower may be in the future.

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More on GBP/USD here

NZD/USD is rising as expected after the RBNZ hiked rates 25bps from 2.75% to 3.00%. Follow through is questionable because the RBNZ has made it clear that they want to keep the exchange rate around current levels. For now we are holding a small long. Look for a bullish RSI break for possible NZD/USD continuation.

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More on NZD/USD here

USD/JPY is facing some near term trend line resistance dating back to the beginning of 2014. RSI has now turned from neutral to bearish under 50. The fact the it put in doji candle shows some market indecision. With that being said, we expect USD/JPY to rise in the longer term and see any pull backs as possible buying opportunities. Currently USD/JPY is trading around lows but may recover later in the session. Look for 102.2 and 101.9 for possible support.

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More on USD/JPY here

USD is facing some short term reaction low resistance and may consolidate for now vs EUR and GBP while rising against AUD. Longer term we expect the USD to rise overall as the FOMC continues to Taper.

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Gold remains in a downtrend in the longer term since mid 2012 and is currently facing trend line resistance as well as $1300 resistance. Gold is currently consolidating around $1285.

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SPX500 has been up 7 days in a row, a pullback may be coming soon if all time highs can not be breached.

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April 23rd 2014

The US Dollar has risen today vs the AUD after weak AUD CPI data showed that the RBA may have to intervene. The AUD was also hit lower shortly after the CPI data came in by inline Chinese data; China HSBC PMI came inline at 48.3.  BOE meeting minutes are out later today 8:30 GMT, there is little change expected in the BOE’s outlook. Global equity markets were mostly up yesterday after the holiday and may be up again today, US and EZ futures are currently green.  Gold is coming under pressure from trend line resistance and may continue to fall if global conditions ease.

AUD/USD may continue to fall after weaker than expected data, it is currently trading just above 0.93 after falling 70 pips.

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GBP/USD top still seems to be a possibility but the outlook is clouded for now with GBP rate hike speculation high with last weeks GBP unemployment data coming in very strong and the Federal Reserve coming off as dovish. For now we continue to hold a small short (this is a speculative counter-trend trade). The trend has been up since August 2013 but it may start to stall since it is coming into major resistance at 1.70.

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More on GBP/USD here

NZD/USD is expected to rise near term because the RBNZ is expected to hike rates  tomorrow from 2.75% to 3.00% which will strengthen the NZD. Follow through is questionable because the RBNZ has made it clear that they want to keep the exchange rate around current levels. For now we are holding a small long. Look for a bullish RSI break on a possible RBNZ rate hike tomorrow.

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More on NZD/USD here

USD/JPY is facing some near term trend line resistance dating back to the beginning of 2014. The fact the it put in doji candle shows some market indecision. With that being said, we expect USD/JPY to rise in the longer term and will continue to hold long.

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More on USD/JPY here

USD is facing some short term reaction low resistance and may consolidate for now vs EUR and GBP while rising against AUD. Longer term we expect the USD to rise overall as the FOMC continues to Taper.

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Gold remains in a downtrend in the longer term since mid 2012 and is currently facing trend line resistance as well as $1300 resistance. Gold is currently consolidating around $1285.

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April 22nd 2014

The US Dollar has fallen today vs the AUD and NZD and may continue to fall across the board near term. Global markets are all open today after the holiday so some USD selling may result as the risk on theme resumes. Gold is coming under pressure from trend line resistance and may continue to fall if global tensions ease.

GBP/USD top still seems to be a possibility but the outlook is clouded for now with GBP rate hike speculation high with last week’s GBP unemployment data coming in very strong and the Federal Reserve coming off as dovish. For now we continue to hold a small short.

More on GBP/USD here

NZD/USD is expected to rise near term because the RBNZ is expected to hike rates which will strengthen the NZD. Follow through is questionable because the RBNZ has made it clear that they want to keep the exchange rate around current levels. For now we are holding a small long.

More on NZD/USD here

USD/JPY is facing some near term trend line resistance dating back to the beginning of 2014. We expect USD/JPY to rise in the longer term and will continue to hold long.

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USD is facing some short term reaction low resistance and may fall for now vs risk on currencies such as NZD, AUD and possibly EUR or GBP. Longer term we expect the USD to rise overall as the FOMC continues to Taper.

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Gold remains in a downtrend in the longer term since mid 2012 and is currently facing trend line resistance as well as $1300 resistance.

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NZD/USD Update

Trend line continues to hold but RSI is still on a down trend we could see a break higher when the rate hike occurs this Wednesday.

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April 21st 2014

NZD/USD a short term buy

The New Zealand dollar is finding support at the downtrend line that goes back to 2011, it is currently trading around the middle of the trading range for today at 0.858. This week the RBNZ is expected to hike rates from 2.75% to 3%, which means NZD may gain some strength as a result and could be why we are not making a lot of progress to the downside. We have entered long with a small size. Longer term we still believe the NZD will fall vs the USD but for now a long is the best trade.

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USD/JPY still a buy

The Japanese Yen is expected to weaken further vs the USD this week. Daily RSI is above the neutral 50 level and price is continuing to rise along side.  We have a good amount of Japanese data event risk this week with Japanese CPI being the most important. One of the goals of the BOJ is to increase the CPI to a stable 2% if data starts to fall weak of these expectations the BOJ could potentially add more stimulus weakening the yen.1Until the USDJPY can break below the longer term trend line dating back to the beginning of 2013 it makes no sense to fight this trend when we are so close to the trend line and still above it. Also the triangle pattern on the daily chart is pointing to continuation of the trend.

In the longer term USD should continue to rise against the JPY due to the fact that Japan may need to add more QE to strengthen their economy and the US is removing QE from their stimulus program.

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Weekend update April 19th and 20th

This week, markets across the world were able to recover prior losses from the week before this last week but may find little reason to rally and break above all time highs. The Ukraine crisis does not appear to be getting any better with NATO increasing presence in the region and Russia not baking off any time soon. That will be putting some pressure on the Euro and commodity markets. The US has said it will not get involved in the Ukraine situation with military forces but if things in Ukraine spilled over into NATO countries NATO would get involved, at this time that is unlikely and the worst case scenario.

We could expect some consolidation around all time highs in US markets as there are few reason to be very bullish to break above all time highs. Asian markets have sold off the most so far this year and are expected to consolidate around current levels.

More here from The Washington Post

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SPX500 has stalled around all time highs and continues to consolidate

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JPN225 has dropped off considerably but yen crosses have remained elevated, FOMC tapering is helping USDJPY maintain some strength

 

April 18th 2014

GBP/USD may be topping

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Possible topping candle on GBP/USD around 1.68, with US and EZ banks closed today there should be little movement across the forex space.

April 17th 2014

Late US Session Update

We are about an hour and a half from the US close and US equities are doing pretty well today, SPX500 +0.35%, NASDAQ +0.56% and DOW +0.12%. Tomorrow is bank holiday for the US and Euro zone but Tokyo will be open. The 10Yr is also up +3.19% which makes sense because the USD is up across the board, mostly vs AUD and JPY.

The USD/JPY long we entered is making progress and currently up about 60 pips, we continue to hold GBP/USD short which is about flat currently. We profited about 70 pips from the NZD/USD short and have now flipped long with a small size.

2014-04-17 18.29.11

USD midday Asia session

The US Dollar is currently at or near lows for the day halfway through the Asian session. The USD looks like a pretty good long at current prices vs JPY and AUD. The USD Index is currently trading around 10,428 above long term 0.50 fib resistance at 10,375. The release of jobless claims tomorrow will have some affect on the USD, there is an expected uptick of 315K vs 300K prior.

 

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April 16th 2014

USD Falling Late Euro Session and US Session

The US Dollar has fallen today erasing some gains that were added during the Asian and Euro trading sessions. The USD fell mostly against AUD and NZD after China data showed that the Chinese economy is continuing to grow at a fairly steady rate. US stocks rallied today for the third day in a row but that rally may be slowing, US indices gaining about +1% but fell after the close to about +0.5%.  The fed beige book showed that most sectors of the economy are improving but that some policy members feel that the fed is not doing enough to help the economy. This may led to some speculation that the fed may slow it’s rate of tapering. Also the fact that the Bank of England is expected to be one of the next major banks to implement rate hikes is leading to GBP speculation and strength. GBP/USD double top still seems to be a possibility until recent highs are broken.

We continue to hold long USD trades for now vs GBP,NZD and JPY and expect to see the USD recover some of today’s late losses tomorrow.

 NZD outlook

The New Zealand dollar has fallen as expected.  The combination of a dark cloud cover candle pattern and bearish RSI divergence is following through. Whether or not this pair follows through more and breaks below 0.236 fib support around 0.85 will likely have to wait until next Wednesday when the RBNZ is expected to hike rates.

Next week the RBNZ is expected to hike rates from 2.75% to 3%, which means NZD may gain some strength as a result. We may exit the short prior to this rate decision and re-enter short at a later date.

For now we continue to hold short and are targeting 0.85.

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April 15th 2014

USD/JPY a buy as long as this holds…

The Japanese Yen is expected to weaken further vs the USD. RSI is unable to push lower and RSI is continuing higher on an upward trend, a breakout has occurred but follow through seems limited for now. Until the USDJPY can break below the longer term trend line dating back to the beginning of 2013 it makes no sense to fight this trend when we are so close to the trend line and still above it.

In the longer term USD should continue to rise against the JPY due to the fact that Japan may need to add more QE to strengthen their economy and the US is removing QE from their stimulus program.

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The US Dollar has bounced so far at the start of Tuesday trading. The USD is expected to further recover from last weeks losses it is currently trading around 10,445. The USD is finding support above the long term 0.50 fib level around 10,375. The USD should continue to bounce later into the session today. There are some CPI data releases that will have some impact on USD pairs today. Most notably GBP CPI data at 8:30 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT. UK CPI is expected to come in slightly weaker than previous at 1.6% vs 1.7% prior. US CPI is expected to come in strong than previous at 1.4% vs 1.1% prior. And finally NZD CPI at 22:45 GMT expected to come in at 1.7% vs 1.6% prior.

The goal for central banks is to reach a stable CPI level around 2% so if data is weaker than expected we could potentially have some dovish commentary out of  FOMC, BOE or RBNZ officials tomorrow or later in the week.

We are currently long the USD vs NZD, JPY and GBP. It would be a good strategy to buy USD dips as the the long term outlook for the USD remains strong through 2014 with the Fed to continue tapering and the economy recovering at a faster pace than European and Asian economies.

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April 14th 2014

The New Zealand dollar is continuing to consolidate but should reverse lower soon.  The combination of a dark cloud cover candle pattern and bearish RSI divergence is enough to cancel out the hammer candle, however we could see some consolidation for at least another week or two before a final push lower.

We are short a small size with a stop above previous highs.

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April 13th 2014

We have entered short on GBP/USD on 4/09 and are looking for continuation and a possible double top. There is a nice Doji and a confirmation candle on 4/10 which should lead to further GBP losses.

The BOE is expected to hold rates unchanged for the year of 2014 and the economic outlook doesn’t look to change that forecast. We will be watch the GBP/USD reaction to upcoming round of US and UK CPI data this week to determine whether or not to hold onto the trade.

2014-04-13 22.47.14

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Here are the major events occurring for the major currency pairs this week. For the USD, US advanced retail sales should show an improvement from prior, following the retail sales release on Tuesday there should be a pickup in CPI data which should lead to a further USD bounce.

EU and UK data are expected to come in weaker than previous which should help give the USD some strength. China data will be very important for the Aussie and we will be watching this closely.

NZD data may be good but if overall market trends are in a risk off mood then we could see the NZD fall as well.

Calendar is -7 GMT

Entire Calendar Here

April 11th 2014

The Japanese Yen has struggle to gain much ground vs the USD today. RSI is unable to push lower while price is getting compressed into a tighter range singling that a bullish breakout could soon result. Also, a break of a major trend line is unlikely to occur on a Friday so a tactical long seems like the best trade here.

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The Euro has rallied vs the USD every day this week but is expected to come under pressure amid a wave of upcoming Euro CPI data. The Euro is having trouble making a lot of headway past long term trend line resistance set back from 2008. Until a reversal candle is produced it is best to stick to the sidelines on this pair or place smaller than normal trades.

The fact that the ECB has made it clear that QE is not a major consideration at this point is the main reason for Euro strength. It is best to wait for a better setup to place a trade on this pair.

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EUR/USD Daily Chart

April 10th 2014

The US Dollar has recovered so far at the start of early trading today as expected. The USD has been down everyday this week and it is looking pretty oversold. The fact that the USD is coming up on major long term support should be observed. The USD should continue to bounce in London and US sessions as equity volumes cool down to end the week. Continued USD bounce next week will be determined by a round of US data and some FOMC commentary, most notably Janet Yellen at a conference on Tuesday.

It would be a good strategy to buy USD dips as the the long term outlook for the USD remains strong through 2014 with the Fed to continue tapering and the economy recovering at a faster pace than European economies. Notable event risk today is University of Michigan Confidence being released at 13:55 GMT today and is expected to come in at 81, with previous reading of 80.

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The BOE is expected to hold rates unchanged today at 0.50% and keep the asset purchase target unchanged at 375B GBP. Any change from this would see a dramatic reaction in GBP/USD and other GBP pairs. The GBP has rallied the last view days vs the USD but should find little reason to continue higher unless the BOE is more positive on the outlook for the UK economy and hawkish in rate hike forecast. The fact that the FOMC is little changed in their outlook for the US economy gives the case for a bearish GBP/USD reaction if there is no change in commentary from the BOE.

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The Japanese Yen has risen so far today against the USD and other major currency pairs. The Bank Of Japan is staying on the sidelines for now and is not expected to increase their already massive QE program that has helped build these yen crosses up. That being said USD/JPY is coming up on a trend line set back from the beginning of 2013. First layer of support is marked by this line around 101.2  and some more support around recent lows of 100.74 with more major long term support coming in around 100. A possible trade would be to go long with a stop of a close below this major trend line or make a smaller trade with a stop below 100 around 99.8. If 100 were to go we could see USD/JPY head much lower rather quickly so be on the look out.

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April 9th 2014

The US Dollar had a horrible day yesterday crashing below 0.382 fib support at 10,524, next major fib level is marked by 0.50 fib which has proven to be supportive in the past. It is currently trading around 10,450 with the 0.50 fib coming in at 10,375 With Fed minutes on Wednesday it will be make or break for the USD. Even if the market is not impressed by Fed commentary on Wednesday there may be little reason for continued USD selling unless they mention a change in continued tapering. Also the fact that equities are at all time highs and the trend has somewhat stalled the last few months should be some caution for equity bulls (USD Bears).

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The New Zealand dollar is continuing to head higher but some caution should be seen, a head and shoulder pattern no longer seems a possibility but there is some RSI divergence occurring which shows some potential weakness. RSI divergence occurs when price and RSI go in opposite directions from each other, in this case price is around recent highs but RSI is lower. It may be premature to enter short at this point before a significant reversal candle is produced. Also it makes sense that the pair stalled around 0.87 because the 2013 high was at around this level (0.867).

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April 8th 2014

The New Zealand dollar is heading into some potential resistance and may be forming a head and shoulder reversal pattern hinting a turn lower is ahead. Neckline support reinforced by long term fib support is at 0.85 and the potential head is at 0.87 as seen on the chart. It may be premature to enter short at this point before the head and shoulder is confirmed but it should be watched carefully. Also it makes sense that the pair stalled around 0.87 because the 2013 high was at around this level (0.867). The downtrend line from 2011 further supports the bearish case for a move lower.

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2 Responses to FOREX TRADING ( Updated Daily!! )

  1. Pingback: Stock Picks for 4/11 and Recap for 4/10 | HEREITFIRST STOCK MARKET MILLIONAIRES

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