The US Dollar has fallen today vs the AUD and NZD and may continue to fall across the board near term. Global markets are all open today after the holiday so some USD selling may result as the risk on theme resumes. Gold is coming under pressure from trend line resistance and may continue to fall if global tensions ease.
GBP/USD top still seems to be a possibility but the outlook is clouded for now with GBP rate hike speculation high with last week’s GBP unemployment data coming in very strong and the Federal Reserve coming off as dovish. For now we continue to hold a small short.
NZD/USD is expected to rise near term because the RBNZ is expected to hike rates which will strengthen the NZD. Follow through is questionable because the RBNZ has made it clear that they want to keep the exchange rate around current levels. For now we are holding a small long.
USD/JPY is facing some near term trend line resistance dating back to the beginning of 2014. We expect USD/JPY to rise in the longer term and will continue to hold long.
USD is facing some short term reaction low resistance and may fall for now vs risk on currencies such as NZD, AUD and possibly EUR or GBP. Longer term we expect the USD to rise overall as the FOMC continues to Taper.
Gold remains in a downtrend in the longer term since mid 2012 and is currently facing trend line resistance as well as $1300 resistance.