The US Dollar has risen today vs the AUD after weak AUD CPI data showed that the RBA may have to intervene. The AUD was also hit lower shortly after the CPI data came in by inline Chinese data; China HSBC PMI came inline at 48.3. BOE meeting minutes are out later today 8:30 GMT, there is little change expected in the BOE’s outlook. Global equity markets were mostly up yesterday after the holiday and may be up again today, US and EZ futures are currently green. Gold is coming under pressure from trend line resistance and may continue to fall if global conditions ease.
AUD/USD may continue to fall after weaker than expected data, it is currently trading just above 0.93 after falling 70 pips.
On the daily chart AUDUSD is facing some downtrend resistance.
GBP/USD top still seems to be a possibility but the outlook is clouded for now with GBP rate hike speculation high with last weeks GBP unemployment data coming in very strong and the Federal Reserve coming off as dovish. For now we continue to hold a small short (this is a speculative counter-trend trade). The trend has been up since August 2013 but it may start to stall since it is coming into major resistance at 1.70.
NZD/USD is expected to rise near term because the RBNZ is expected to hike rates tomorrow from 2.75% to 3.00% which will strengthen the NZD. Follow through is questionable because the RBNZ has made it clear that they want to keep the exchange rate around current levels. For now we are holding a small long. Look for a bullish RSI break on a possible RBNZ rate hike tomorrow.
USD/JPY is facing some near term trend line resistance dating back to the beginning of 2014. The fact the it put in doji candle shows some market indecision. With that being said, we expect USD/JPY to rise in the longer term and will continue to hold long.
USD is facing some short term reaction low resistance and may consolidate for now vs EUR and GBP while rising against AUD. Longer term we expect the USD to rise overall as the FOMC continues to Taper.
Gold remains in a downtrend in the longer term since mid 2012 and is currently facing trend line resistance as well as $1300 resistance. Gold is currently consolidating around $1285.