USD Technical Analysis April 15th 2014


The US Dollar has bounced so far at the start of Tuesday trading. The USD is expected to further recover from last weeks losses it is currently trading around 10,445. The USD is finding support above the long term 0.50 fib level around 10,375. The USD should continue to bounce later into the session today. There are some CPI data releases that will have some impact on USD pairs today. Most notably GBP CPI data at 8:30 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT. UK CPI is expected to come in slightly weaker than previous at 1.6% vs 1.7% prior. US CPI is expected to come in strong than previous at 1.4% vs 1.1% prior. And finally NZD CPI at 22:45 GMT expected to come in at 1.7% vs 1.6% prior.

The goal for central banks is to reach a stable CPI level around 2% so if data is weaker than expected we could potentially have some dovish commentary out of  FOMC, BOE or RBNZ officials tomorrow or later in the week.

We are currently long the USD vs NZD, JPY and GBP. It would be a good strategy to buy USD dips as the the long term outlook for the USD remains strong through 2014 with the Fed to continue tapering and the economy recovering at a faster pace than European and Asian economies.

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